Türkiye - 39.06
123
A crypto-fascist pushing the boundaries of the definition of “benevolent dictator”
Türkiye does what Türkiye wants. Türkiye is a cornerstone member of NATO that remains relatively close with Russia and is engaged against American-backed militias in Syria. Türkiye maintains a fierce cultural and political rivalry with neighbor and fellow NATO member, Greece. Türkiye is fiercely independent in nearly all matters of foreign policy and also heeds little NATO advice on matters of domestic policy. Despite NATO’s guidelines on maintaining a democracy, what Türkiye wants is quickly becoming what Recep Tayyip Ergoğan wants. Erdoğan is Türkiye’s popular and authoritarian president, ruling the country since 2014 and exerting significant influence over Turkish politics since 1994. Since assuming the office, Erdoğan has consolidated power and expanded his own authority. While Turkish democracy was not strong to begin with, it has been rapidly eroded both by Erdoğan and a 2016 coup attempt. Türkiye is currently on a dark trajectory as Erdoğan edges the country ever closer to dictatorship, and works extensively to repress dissent. However, Erdoğan is far from a tyrant. He seems to genuinely have the best intentions of his people in mind and has worked extensively to develop Türkiye. Under his administration, the Turkish economy has grown rapidly, even managing to grow the economy during COVID. While Türkiye’s future is uncertain and recent trends have been concerning, the Turkish people continue to back their quasi-democratic strongman.
Human Rights - 24
Third-party groups flagrantly violate human rights often and regularly, limiting Türkiye’s score to 50. Türkiye has fully abolished the death penalty. Türkiye is in the midst of an active military campaign against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). PKK insurgents regularly kill civilians with wanton disregard in their operations as well as partaking in deliberate killings and hostage-taking. The International Crisis Group estimated that 5539 civilians were killed in the fighting since 2015. The PKK have repeatedly planted bombs in or near civilian-populated areas and have repeatedly taken civilian hostages, often resulting in civilian casualties. The PKK also reportedly use child soldiers in their operations. The Turkish government reported 438 children fleeing the PKK since 2021. Kurdish communities have repeatedly accused the PKK of kidnapping their children to be used as child soldiers. Extrajudicial executions and torture of PKK POWs is tolerated by the government. Captured PKK terrorists are often executed en masse and dumped into mass graves. One such execution involved hours of torture before fighters were thrown out of a helicopter at high altitude. The government has been repeatedly accused of torturing captured PKK terrorists. Suspected PKK fighters were often disappeared. Turkish police generally had a very high impunity for brutality and investigations into police misconduct were rare and generally did not result in convictions. The Baran Tursun Foundation reported that 403 people were killed for disobeying stop orders since 2007. Detainees were often beaten during their detention. The government conducted a number of major purges after the 2016 coup d’etat attempt. Several prominent military and opposition leaders perceived as loyal to the coup were arrested or disappeared. The State of Emergency Powers imposed after the coup attempt resulted in civil servants terminated after the coup becoming completely unhireable. The State of Emergency Powers made it effectively illegal to hire civil servants dismissed during said powers, regardless of the reason. Several prisoners, especially suspected PKK fighters or political prisoners reported torture in custody. Torture was generally rare in Turkish custody but instances where it was used were covered up. Confessions obtained under duress were not thrown out of court. The government arbitrarily arrested and conducted sham trials for people arrested during the State of Emergency Powers. Those suspected of having ties with the Gulen movement were arrested without charge and were often held incommunicado for extended periods. Trials for those with suspected links to the Gulen movement were neither free nor fair and were not up to standards adhered to by other courts in the Turkish justice system. The trials of suspected terrorists were also neither free nor fair and were often run as kangaroo courts. Human rights groups accused the government of arresting political prisoners on terrorism charges or for alleged connections with the Gulen movement. Some 340,000 prisoners were arrested under the State of Emergency Powers or on charges of terrorism, potentially thousands of whom are political prisoners. The government pursued leaders of the Gulen movement living abroad. The government pressured the United States to arrest Fetullah Gulen, who currently resides in the United States. The government also placed pressure on foreign governments to extradite leaders of the Gulen movement to Türkiye without due process. Turkish intelligence agents operating abroad carried out operations to attempt to apprehend leaders of the Gulen movement, often without the permission of the countries they were operating in. The Turkish media environment is generally hostile and mainstream media in the country is closely controlled by the government. Independent media is under immense legal pressure and faces regular legal harassment. The government conducted major purges of universities after the 2016 coup attempt and most dissenting professors were arrested, terminated, or forced to flee the country. The government is accused of maintaining an extensive surveillance network and is known to closely monitor social media. Politically sensitive demonstrations are regularly denied permits. Religion is closely regulated in Türkiye. While Türkiye is officially a secular state, Sunni Islam plays an important role in Turkish society. Non-Sunni groups face difficulty operating and while Orthodox Christians, Catholics, and Jews receive special status they still face difficulty operating. Trans Turks can obtain sex reassignment surgery but cannot change their legal gender. Constitutional discrimination protections have been drafted but were never implemented. Türkiye does not recognize same-sex relationships and any single person can adopt but Türkiye does not recognize same-sex joint adoption. Abortion is legal to twelve weeks.
Democracy - 34
The president is directly elected and the prime minister is chosen by parliament. The president is limited to two terms unless parliament calls a snap election early in their term, in which case the partially-served term is considered void. After the 2017 constitutional referendum, the prime minister holds few executive powers. The most recent presidential election was held under a state of emergency due to the 2016 coup d’etat and a 2018 snap election, President Erdoğan is allowed to run for a third term and can hold office until 2028. Parliament is elected by proportional representation and parties must obtain over 10% of the nationwide vote to hold seats. The 2018 parliamentary snap elections were marred by misuse of state resources and the intimidation of opposition politicians. The Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) is highly partial. The YSK has scrapped election results without reason and is generally regarded to be under the influence of Erdoğan. Türkiye’s multiparty system is largely closed as the 10% vote threshold makes it very difficult for new parties to gain seats. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) has dominated politics since 2002. A constitutional amendment in 2016 removed parliamentary immunity. Since then, several People’s Democratic Party (HDP) MPs were arrested and jailed for their alleged connections with the PKK. The military’s influence over politics has largely waned, in part due to the 2016 coup attempt. Non-Sunnis and Kurds are disenfranchised.
Freedom - 23
The Turkish media environment is generally hostile and Turkish mainstream media is closely monitored by the government. Independent media in the country are under immense legal pressure and face regular legal harassment. Kurdish journalists and journalists operating in or near Kurdistan face regular legal harassment. Reporting on Turkish operations in Iraq, Syria, and Libya frequently results in legal harassment from the government. The government conducted major purges of university staff after the 2016 coup attempt and most dissenting professors were arrested, terminated, or forced to flee the country. The government has been accused of maintaining an extensive surveillance network. The Turkish government is known to closely monitor social media and has made arrests based on social media posts. Politically sensitive demonstrations are regularly denied permits or suppressed. Religion is closely regulated in Türkiye, an officially secular state that plays heavy favorites. Non-Sunni groups struggle to operate in Türkiye and while Orthodox Christians, Catholics, and Jews receive special status they still face religious discrimination throughout the country. Practitioners of Armenian Orthodoxy face even more discrimination after the government’s support of Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh War. All drugs are illegal in Türkiye. The government may issue gun ownership licenses for bolt-action rifles and revolvers but permits are generally difficult and expensive to obtain.
Economy - 69
Health - 67
Türkiye has a life expectancy of 78 years and an infant mortality rate of 0.86%. 32.1% of Turks are obese and 5.9% are malnourished. Türkiye’s universal healthcare system provides decent quality care. Hospitals outside of major cities are understaffed and offer low-quality care, while hospitals in major cities offer significantly higher-quality care. 94.4% of Turks have access to clean, running water. 31.6% of adult Turks smoke regularly.
Corruption - 35
Judicial verdicts are bought and sold. Police extortion is common. Public services sometimes must be bribed into action. Bribes are often necessary to obtain deeds and construction permits. Tax fraud is common and relatively easy to get away with. Border extortion along the borders with Syria and Iraq is quite common. Public contracts are near impossible to obtain without corruption.
Competency - 46
The government is failing to protect the people from violent nonstate actors. Civil unrest is rampant in Türkiye. Corruption is endemic in Türkiye. The government maintains a very tight grip over the people.
Future - 44
The government has recently worked to consolidate power. The government has recently cracked down on free expression and democracy has severely eroded as the AKP consolidates power. The Turkish economy has been growing steadily, including during COVID. The government has also made progress against the PKK.
Actions Abroad - 39
Türkiye has carried out airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. Turkish airstrikes killed civilians and were sometimes targeted at urban areas. Türkiye has backed rebel groups in Syria and Libya that used child soldiers. Despite being confronted with evidence of this, Türkiye has continued to back these groups. Türkiye is a NATO member state and is a major contributor to NATO and its fifth-largest military power. Despite this, Türkiye maintains closer ties to Russia than most other NATO members and maintains an active rivalry with fellow NATO-member state Greece. Türkiye maintains close relations with Azerbaijan. Largely as a result of its alliance with Azerbaijan, Türkiye maintains a generally belligerent relationship with Armenia. Türkiye has refused to acknowledge or apologize for the Armenian genocide. Türkiye maintains close relations with Israel and was the first majority-Muslim country to recognize the independence of Israel.
0.1% of Turks live below the international poverty line and 13.9% live below the national poverty line. 10.8% of Turks are unemployed. Türkiye has a high economic disparity. The minimum wage in Türkiye is $474 per month. Türkiye has a decent universal healthcare system, provided through a government insurance scheme and a network of public hospitals. Turkish healthcare varies widely in quality and public hospitals are frequently understaffed, offering poor-quality care outside of major cities. The Turkish economy grew 1.8% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2019.